Hamilton, New York’Republican Rick Lazio leads Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton among upstate New York voters in the race for U.S. Senate, according to the latest results of the ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø/Zogby Upstate New York poll.
The survey of 1,200 likely upstate New York voters taken August 29 ‘ Sept. 2 finds Lazio leading Clinton among upstate voters 50.8 percent to 41.1 percent. Another 7.0 percent were undecided and 1.1 percent chose another candidate. The survey has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percent.
In the first ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø/Zogby Upstate New York survey taken in April, then-Republican candidate Rudolph Giuliani led Clinton 51.9 percent to 38.3 percent before the New York City mayor withdrew from the race for health reasons.
April 25, 2000 Sept. 6, 2000
Hillary Clinton 38.3 41.1
Rudolph Giuliani/Rick Lazio 51.9 (Giuliani) 50.8 (Lazio)
Other 2.7 1.1
Not Sure 7.1 7.0
While 71.5 percent of Upstate Democrats favor Clinton, 20.3 percent support Lazio, the survey showed. Among Upstate Republicans, 75.3 percent back Lazio while 17.1 percent support Clinton. At the same time, Lazio enjoys a large lead among upstate Independents 53.3 percent – 37.2 percent.
All upstate area codes support Lazio, including suburban (53 percent – 37.5 percent) and rural areas (58.5 percent – 33.2 percent). Clinton leads among upstate’s large cities (53.7 percent – 39 percent) and small cities (50 percent – 43.3 percent).
Lazio leads by 24 points among men (34.6 percent Clinton, 58.2 percent Lazio), while Clinton has the advantage among women (47.1 percent Clinton, 43.9 percent Lazio). Clinton also leads among women working outside the home (53.2 percent 40.1 percent) – a demographic she has targeted throughout her campaign.
Pollster John Zogby: ‘This is not the greatest news for Rick Lazio. Generally speaking, a Republican should win Upstate New York by better than ten points, and Lazio is right on the margin. With 7 percent still undecided, my hunch is, these are voters who’ll either give Lazio a second look, or may not vote at all. Lazio should be concerned about Clinton’s efforts to portray him as too conservative. Despite what may be the image, Upstate New York is not a conservative region.’
In the presidential race, upstate New York voters favor Democrat Al Gore over Republican George W. Bush, 45.4 percent to 41.1 percent.
The two frontrunners are followed by Green Party’s Ralph Nader, 3.4 percent; Reform Party’s Pat Buchanan, 0.7 percent; Libertarian Harry Browne, 0.3 percent; Natural Law’s John Hagelin, 0.2 percent; and 8.9 percent Undecided.
ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø/Zogby Upstate NY
09.06.00 NY Post
NY State
08.25.00 Reuters
U.S.
08.20.00 ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø/Zogby
Upstate NY
04.25.00 Zogby NY
NY State
04.18.00 Zogby Amer.
U.S.
04.15.00
Gore 45.4 54.1 44.1 35.4 46.1 36.0
Bush 41.1 33.5 40.9 41.3 30.9 42.5
Buchanan 0.7 1.5 1.7 2.9 2.5 4.4
Nader 3.4 2.5 5.3 5.2 2.8 4.0
Browne 0.3 1.0 0.8
Hagelin 0.2 0.1 0.2
Not sure 8.9 8.4 6.9 17.7 12.1
Across the region, Bush leads Gore in the Capitol District (45.1 percent – 42.9 percent) and the Southern Tier (40.9 percent – 38.6 percent). But, Gore leads in Central New York (45.6 percent – 41.2 percent) and Western New York (49.5 percent – 38.8 percent).
While most are staying with their party’s candidate, 11.6 percent of Democrats are choosing Bush over Gore (Gore 78 percent, Nader 3.2 percent), while 20.5 percent of Republicans are choosing Gore over Bush (Bush 66.2 percent, Nader 2.1 percent).
Independents are almost evenly split between the two major party candidates (39.5 percent Gore, 39.7 percent Bush) while 7.5 percent prefer Green Party candidate Ralph Nader.
‘This is very bad news for George W. Bush,’ says John Zogby. ‘With my statewide poll showing him down by 20 points, losing upstate New York could be devastating to local Republican candidates in local races.’
This is the second in a series of three surveys of upstate New York attitudes, issues and opinions conducted by ÌÇÐÄvlog¹ÙÍø and Zogby International.